We're Gonna Need a Bigger Moat — cover art: a small proud storybook island castle on a rocky islet, encircled by a thin defensive moat, dwarfed by an enormous quiet sea-leviathan rising calmly out of the deep behind it.

2023 · Medium · Essay

“All these copies can learn separately but share their knowledge instantly.”
— Geoffrey Hinton, quoted in We're Gonna Need a Bigger Moat, May 2023
Read the essay

© 2023 Steve Yegge. Originally published at Medium.

AI Notes

The essay began life as background material for Cheating Is All You Need, Steve's much-larger May 2023 Sourcegraph post, and grew large enough that he extracted it. The trigger is two Google events the same week: Geoffrey Hinton's resignation and subsequent tour explaining the "tech zombie apocalypse" he sees coming, and a leaked internal Google memo arguing that open-source models had effectively caught up with closed-source ones in something like ten weeks.

Steve's argument: those two events together mean every SaaS company building on top of LLMs — including the coding assistants he himself works on — has just discovered its moat is too small. The Matrix-helicopter analogy is the central image: if LLM instances can share knowledge instantly, then "specialised model trained on proprietary data" is defensible only for as long as it takes the next instance to download the specialisation. The title is the Jaws line, and the cover takes it literally. It is the structural-economics companion to Cheating Is All You Need.

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    The companion essay. Bigger Moat began life as the background section of Cheating Is All You Need and was extracted when that one outgrew its banks.

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